Dawn or Dusk?

It's the most faq of the year, from boardrooms to twitter posts to financial networks: 

‘Are we headed into or out of an economic downturn?’ 

And everyone has an opinion.

And, it's a fair question for retailers to ask – folks want to know what’s going to happen to help inform their investment decisions.  Simply put, we all want to know what to do next - some guidance that helps us determine what to do next.

Armchair economists will point to an indicator or two - interest rates, consumer spending, inflation changes - to share their prediction of what the next few quarters will bring.

Here’s one indicator that may hint at what’s to come: eCommerce growth. Specifically, the year-over-year change in growth is on the cusp of becoming a trend. The 'fishing hook' curve shows promise, albeit tempered by subtle changes.

While a few yoy quarters of ecommerce growth alone can't tell us whether it's dawn or dusk, the slight uptick carries some hope that we may be emerging from a slump.